Understanding Seasonal Fire Outlooks
Each year, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) releases a seasonal bushfire outlook in partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and state fire agencies. These outlooks assess the likelihood of above-normal fire conditions across different regions based on rainfall deficiencies, vegetation condition, drought indices, and climate drivers.
It is important to understand what these outlooks are and are not. They are probabilistic assessments of risk — not predictions of specific fire events. A region assessed as having elevated risk may or may not experience a major fire; a region with a normal or below-normal outlook is still capable of producing dangerous fires in the right conditions.
Key Climate Drivers Shaping the 2025 Season
Several large-scale climate drivers are influencing fire conditions heading into the 2025 fire season:
- ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): The Bureau of Meteorology monitors ENSO conditions closely. La Niña phases are typically associated with wetter, cooler conditions in eastern Australia, while El Niño phases bring drier, hotter conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions can still produce variable and dangerous fire seasons.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD significantly influences rainfall patterns in southern and western Australia. A positive IOD — warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean — is associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall across WA and southern Australia.
- Soil moisture and vegetation greenness: Regardless of seasonal forecasts, actual fuel conditions on the ground at the start of fire season are critical. Dry soil and stressed vegetation following a dry winter and spring dramatically increase risk.
Western Australia: Regional Focus
Western Australia's fire risk profile is diverse, given the state's enormous size:
South-West Land Division
The south-west corner of WA — including the Perth Hills, and forested areas around Margaret River, Bridgetown, and Manjimup — historically carries the highest structural fire risk in the state. Dry eucalypt forests with accumulated fuel loads and proximity to residential areas create dangerous conditions during the November–March peak season. Land managers and homeowners in this region should be on high alert throughout summer.
Wheatbelt and Goldfields
Grass and scrub fires dominate in these drier regions. Fast-moving grass fires following good winter rainfall are a particular risk after years with above-average spring growth — when vegetation dries off rapidly heading into summer.
Kimberley and Pilbara
Northern WA experiences fire season earlier — typically April through November — driven by the growth and curing of tropical grasses following the wet season. These fires, while often of lower structural risk, can burn enormous areas and have significant ecological and pastoral impacts.
What Communities Should Be Doing Now
Regardless of how the seasonal outlook reads, the preparation actions are the same — and they should be completed well before fire season begins:
- Review and update your bushfire survival plan — ensure all household members know the plan and have practised it.
- Complete your property maintenance — clear gutters, mow grass, remove woody debris, and address any vulnerabilities in your home's structure.
- Check your emergency kit — restock expired food and medications, ensure documents are up to date.
- Reconnect with your community — know your neighbours' plans, particularly those who may need assistance to evacuate.
- Register for alerts — ensure you are signed up to Emergency WA notifications and that your contact details are current.
Monitoring Resources
During fire season, keep the following resources bookmarked and accessible:
- Emergency WA (emergency.wa.gov.au) — official WA emergency alerts and warnings
- DFES Fire Danger Ratings — daily ratings by district during fire season
- Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au) — weather forecasts, fire weather warnings, and seasonal outlooks
- AFAC Seasonal Outlook — updated outlooks at key points through the year
Stay Informed, Stay Prepared
Seasonal outlooks are a useful planning tool, but they should never be a reason to relax preparation. Every fire season carries risk. The communities best placed to weather whatever the season brings are those that prepare thoroughly, regardless of what the forecast says.